Pwc believes that germany can grow as a production location – even though german carmakers have been allowed to expand their production in asia much more vigorously than at home.
After many years of decline, around 12.1 million new cars will be registered in europe (EU, EFTA) this year, according to forecasts. 2019 sales to rise to 14.9 million vehicles, according to study. In the USA, he will increase from 15.4 to 16.7 million in the same period.
"The automotive markets of the western industrialized nations are largely saturated," kuhnert stressed. "The growth rates we are forecasting are primarily the result of a high replacement demand – especially in europe, car owners have been postponing a major new purchase due to the economic crisis."
The situation in china is completely different. According to a study published at the international motor show (IAA) in frankfurt, car sales in the middle kingdom are expected to climb from 18.1 million new vehicles this year to around 27.7 million by 2019. "That would make the chinese market in 2019 almost as rough as the sales markets of the u.S. And western europe combined," kuhnert explained. Because more and more people in china and other emerging markets could afford a car for the first time.
Driven by rapid chinese growth, pwc sees growth potential above all for germany as an industrial location. Production in this country will increase by just under one million cars to 6.3 million compared to the record year of 2010 – almost as much as production in spain, france, great britain and italy combined.
The above-average production growth in germany is also due to the expansion of the product range at VW, BMW and mercedes, for example through niche models, said kuhnert: "since comparatively few unit numbers of these vehicles are produced, exporting is often more economical than relocating production to the sales markets."